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Confidence via Capital Growth

3 minute read

Published:

This semester, I took a “special topics” graduate class through CU Computer Science on game-theoretic probability and statistics. “GTP” is a funky emerging branch of math. In its purest form, it argues that we don’t need measure theory to understand probability. Instead of starting with the assignment of probabilities to events (and their unions and intersections) via a measure, GTP starts with betting games, where a player expresses their belief about the probability of an event by betting for or against the event at a given price. If gambling strategies exist which guarantee the gambler a certain gain, then we can define probabilities in terms of (the inverse of) gambler’s certain gain. Theorems about probability (for example, theorems like the law of large numbers which show that some events have 0 probability) can be proven via general gambling strategies.

Design by Vibe Coding

1 minute read

Published:

I’ve managed to make a modicum of progress on Kitpicks. I’ve been doing some UI work, trying to get something that feels like a good app before I implement the algorithms and data layers. It’s really about shaking out my assumptions and making sure there aren’t hidden requirements.

How Paranoid Is Your Android?

16 minute read

Published:

This post was written as an assignment for ASEN 6519, the Advanced Survey of Sequential Decision Making class, at CU Boulder. AI was used to help with research for this post and perform a grammar/tone check.

Kitpicks Begins!

3 minute read

Published:

After 5 1/2 years of working at Google, I decided to take a buyout to pursue full-time graduate school.